The operating signal
Berkeley Lab's 2026 interconnection dataset tracks roughly 8,200 active projects representing about 2,061 GW of generation and storage seeking U.S. grid connection at the end of 2025. Yet historical outcomes are far thinner: only 13% of capacity entering queues from 2000–2020 had reached commercial operation by the end of 2025, while 75% had withdrawn.
Already had a draft or executed interconnection agreement but had not yet reached commercial operation. Even after an agreement, Berkeley Lab reports withdrawal rates above 40% historically.
Timing also matters. For regions with available data, the median time from an interconnection request to commercial operation exceeded five years for projects built in 2025. Berkeley Lab notes that reforms including FERC Order 2023 are being implemented, but says it is still too early to assess their full impact.
What this changes
Assemble Teams analysis: queue megawatts are useful for demand, technology and regional trend signals, but they should not be treated as a one-for-one build forecast. Mission owners, utilities, investors and suppliers need a separate measure of execution confidence.
Intent exists
A project has entered the process, but cost, studies, land, equipment, financing or commercial commitments may still change.
System impacts are becoming known
Study results begin to expose upgrades, timing and cost burdens that can change project economics.
Interconnection terms exist
A draft or executed agreement materially increases information—but does not guarantee construction or commercial operation.
Dependencies converge
Financing, permits, equipment, site control, supply chain, construction and offtake must align with the interconnection path.
What the evidence does not prove
The historical completion rate is not a prediction that 13% of today's active queue will be built. Recent projects have not had enough time to reach final outcomes, regions differ, and reforms may change future performance. The transferable lesson is narrower: a queue should be analyzed as a staged funnel with attrition and time risk.
Use the distinction in a mission review.
Replace “How much capacity is in the queue?” with “How much capacity has crossed each execution gate, and which dependency is still capable of killing the schedule?”
Browse related Energy & Climate missions →Editorial standard: primary-source facts are linked; Assemble Teams analysis is labeled; historical completion rates are not presented as a forecast.